Flood — Oxford, Maine

2023-12-19 to 2023-12-20 · near Fryeburg Regl Arpt, Oxford, Maine

Event narrative

The combined runoff from rain and snowmelt averaged 7 to 10 inches in the higher terrain, and 4 to 6 inches in the Saco River Valley Basin. The steep terrain and frozen ground supported rapid runoff which caused flash flooding along all streams and brooks in the region. The Swift River, a western tributary to the Saco River in Conway, was estimated to have had flows around 12-16 kcfs. The flows in the Saco River in Bartlett reached 24 kcfs. The annual chance occurrence of these flows are estimated around 1% to 0.2%, otherwise referred to as a 100 or 500 year flood. The combined flows in Conway resulted in flows over 60 kcfs as measured by the USGS gage. The stream height reached 17.72 on the evening of the 18th, exceeding the record held by Irene in 2011 which crested at 17.23 feet with a flow of 58.2 kcfs. The river climbed from 4 feet on the 17th to 17 feet in under 24 hours due to the rapid nature of the runoff. The flood wave moved down the Saco River into the Fryeburg area, flooding along Route 113 River Street from Conway to Fryeburg. River street was flooded and closed for a period of time. The flood wave reached the marshy areas with limited impacts further downriver from Fryeburg.

Wider weather episode

Low pressure began organizing in the Gulf of Mexico on the 16th, setting record low sea level pressures as it traversed the Southeast through the 17th. Strong high pressure over the North Atlantic created a deep southeasterly flow that drew warm air into New England ahead of the approaching storm. By the time precipitation arrived on the evening of the 17th, temperatures were warm enough for rain everywhere except the highest peaks. Early on the 18th a shortwave trough was approaching from the Great Lakes and led to rapid deepening of the low pressure as it paralleled the Eastern Seaboard. Even as the center of the storm remained near Chesapeake Bay on the morning of the 18th, a strong low level jet had developed and winds began to gust in excess of 50 mph well inland from the coast. Damaging wind gusts continued into the afternoon. Hundreds of thousands of customers lost power due to falling limbs and downed wires. The anomalously warm air mass also led to intense rainfall rates beginning on the evening of the 17th, which continued into the 18th. Upsloping winds also enhanced precipitation along the southeast facing slopes of the mountains. Widespread 3 to 4 inches of rain fell, with isolated pockets of 6 to 8 inches. This fell on top of snow that was ripe from previous rainfall about a week earlier. An additional 2 to 3 inches of snow water equivalent was likely added to rainfall runoff. Numerous road washouts and road closures occurred due to flash flooding and fast responding small stream and tributaries. Widespread moderate to major flooding occurred along mainstem rivers. The storm destroyed 13 homes, caused major damage to 106 others, with an additional 65 homes receiving minor flood damage. Private damage was in the millions with public infrastructure damage of 20+ million being reported by FEMA.

View location on OpenStreetMap → (43.9958, -70.9972)

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 1151023. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.