Tropical Storm — Inalnd St. Johns, Florida

2024-10-09 to 2024-10-10 · Inalnd St. Johns, Florida

Event narrative

The St. Johns River tributary Deep Creek at Spuds, in southern St. Johns County, crested in major flood stage at 5.94 ft MHHW on October 10th at 2 PM EDT. This broke the prior record water level that was established during Hurricane Irma in September 2017. This record flood level was mostly due to rainfall runoff from the widespread 5-9 inches of rainfall that fell across southern St. Johns County combined with elevated tides. Water levels at this gauge near the town of Hastings were above what is considered major flooding from around sunset on Wednesday, October 9th through 12 PM on Saturday, October 12th. The Flagler Estates and Hastings communities were severely impacted with extensive flooding, which began on 10/9. At 9:55 am, county EM reported flooding along Alvin Road in Hastings. At 10:30 am, media reported flood water was across Moccasin Creek Lane near Elkton. The county EM reported at 7:32 pm that roads and fields from Hastings to Flagler Estates were covered in flood waters. The St Johns Sheriff Office reported numerous roads that were closed for multiple days and impassable due to flood waters in the vicinity of Hastings and Flagler Estates including East Deep Creek Blvd, Ashley St, Flagler Estates Blvd, East St. Johns Avenue, Catherine St, Dillon Ave, and Morrison Road. Many homes were surrounded by flood waters.

Widespread power outages and trees down were reported down across the county, as well as significant damage to barns. Winds begin to ramp up in the evening of Oct. 9th with peak winds occurring on Oct. 10th between 1-4 AM EDT.

Storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) resulted in major flooding along the St. Johns River at Racy Point and at the Shands Bridge on the evening of October 10th. At 12:09 am on 10/10, St. Johns County Fire Rescue reported flood water was flowing over the intersection of Flagler Estates Blvd and East Deep Creek Blvd. This flooding was due to a combination of Storm Surge into Deep Creek and flooding rainfall. At 11:45 pm, the Deep Creek gage at Spuds reported a water level of 4.87 ft MHHW datum. Major flooding for this location begins at 4.2 ft MHHW. At 10:10 AM on 10/10, the Emergency Management team reported that water was across County Road 13 near Six Mile Creek, which is a tributary of the St. Johns River. A driveway collapsed exposing a culvert for a home along County Road 13.

Heavy rainfall from Milton's rainbands the morning of Oct. 9th led to 3 to 5 inches of rain falling across much of St. Johns county in a short time span (4 hours). At 10:30 AM, broadcast media reported there was flooding on Moccasin Creek Lane in the vicinity of Elkton. Mostly continuous rainfall led to widespread 5-9 inches of rainfall that fell for areas mainly along and south of St. Augustine and Elkton. As of October 14th, 136 structures in the county were reported as affected by Milton including 40 homes and/or businesses sustained at least some level of damage, with 5 of those sustaining major damage and 1 destroyed.

Estimated damages in the county were $11 million dollars. Due to the potential flood threat, a mandatory evacuation order went into effect on Wednesday (Oct 9) at 8 AM for all of Zone A, Zone B, and only areas south of State Road 206 in Zone F. This included the City of St Augustine, St Augustine Beach, and low-lying/waterfront properties.

Wider weather episode

A tropical disturbance over the southwest Gulf of Mexico quickly developed into Tropical Storm

Milton on Saturday, October 5th. Milton then moved slowly east-southeastward, strengthening into a

hurricane the following day. On Monday, October 7th, the storm underwent rapid intensification,

reaching Category 5 strength as it neared the northwestern coast of Mexico's Yucatn Peninsula. Late

on Monday and into Tuesday, Milton shifted eastward and then northeastward across the

southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

As Milton approached Florida's Gulf coast on Wednesday, October 9th, it began to gradually weaken,

but still maintained major hurricane status. The storm made landfall that evening near Siesta Key on

Florida's west coast as a strong Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

While it weakened further as it crossed central Florida overnight, Milton remained a hurricane. By

early Thursday morning, October 10th, it emerged off Florida's Atlantic coast as a Category 1 storm.

Milton caused widespread impacts across north-central and northeast Florida, as well as coastal

southeast Georgia. Flagler County, along with large portions of St. Johns, Putnam, and Marion

counties, experienced sustained tropical storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts. Rainfall

amounts ranged from 7 to 11 inches as outer rainbands and the storm's powerful northern side

swept through these areas late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

This heavy rainfall caused Deep Creek, a tributary of the St. Johns River in St. Johns County, to reach

record levels on Thursday, October 10th, surpassing the previous record set during Hurricane Irma in

2017. This led to extensive flooding throughout the southern half of St. Johns County, particularly in

the Flagler Estates community and the towns of Hastings and Spuds. Additionally, record flooding was

observed along Haw Creek in western Flagler County, exceeding the previous record set in the

aftermath of Hurricane Ian in 2022.

Storm surge flooding of around 3 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recorded along

the St. Johns River and the northeast Florida coast. Significant inundation was reported along the

lower St. Johns River, with widespread flooding in areas such as Welaka, FL.

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 1219086. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.