Frost/Freeze — Mcmullen, Texas

2025-01-20 to 2025-01-24 · Mcmullen, Texas

Event narrative

Texas A&M AgriLife: Conditions included the coldest temperatures of the season. An arctic cold front moved into the district, bringing temperatures below freezing for several hours on multiple days. Susceptible plants and forages suffered freeze damage, with the majority of the damage affecting houseplants and home fruit trees. The full extent of the damage was still unknown for fall-planted grains, but corn and grain sorghum planting was likely delayed by a week due to the cold and limited soil moisture. Leafy greens were affected by freezing temperatures, and potential damage to citrus trees and winter vegetables was still being assessed. Extreme drought conditions persisted, as the storm brought minimal moisture. Subsoil moisture remained dry, and additional rainfall will be necessary for the upcoming planting season. Nearly 1 inch of snow fell, but pasture and rangeland conditions continued to decline due to the lack of rainfall and freezing temperatures. Bermuda grass pastures showed burnt tops and entered their winter dormancy, along with other warm-season hay meadows. Row crop producers prepared their fields for the upcoming planting season and hoped for another rain event. The local auction barn was closed due to the winter storm. Conditions were tough on beef cattle, livestock and wildlife, with producers busy providing hay, protein and supplemental feed. Most ranchers continued steady herd culling. Cattle prices remained good and consistent at the two local markets, while feed prices remained high.

Wider weather episode

In mid-January, long-range guidance from the CPC began signaling a period of colder-than-normal temperatures across the central United States, with a slight risk of hazardous cold extending into South Texas around January 20. Although precipitation chances were noted, they were not as prominent as the cold signal. As the event drew closer, medium-range forecasts maintained high confidence in below-normal temperatures, particularly across the eastern U.S., with increasing indications of above-normal precipitation near the Gulf Coast. In South Texas, a moderate risk of dangerously cold temperatures emerged, though no significant signals for heavy snowfall were present. Forecast models showed a 500 mb pattern supportive of sustained cold, driven by upstream Arctic ridging, but the precise configuration remained critical for South Texas impacts. Near the surface, the formation and placement of a coastal trough introduced uncertainty, leading to run-to-run variability in temperature forecasts and limited confidence in precipitation type.

As the event moved into the mesoscale range, mixed precipitation threats began to become clearer, with model soundings suggesting a potential for freezing drizzle or sleet depending on the depth of the cold layer. A strong cold front passed through the area late January 18 into early January 19, delivering a sharp drop in temperatures (over 30 degrees) and establishing a dry Arctic air mass that lingered through Monday, January 20. On Monday, very light wintry precipitation occurred, aided by wet-bulb cooling, before warming and moistening of the atmospheric column later that day. By the 00Z sounding on January 21, a pronounced warm nose (5C) was present with strong warm advection, though moisture above 700 mb remained limited, hampering ice crystal formation. By 12Z, the warm nose weakened, and a deep subfreezing layer supported sleet, but poor saturation in the dendritic growth zone meant freezing drizzle remained the dominant precipitation type. Over the duration of the event, the office issued 20 long-fused hazard products between January 18 and 22, including Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, Cold Weather Advisories, Freeze Warnings, and various wind-related products.

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 1235695. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.