Frost/Freeze — Inland Nueces County, Texas

2025-01-20 to 2025-01-22 · Inland Nueces County, Texas

Event narrative

Texas A&M AgriLife: A severe cold front was expected to move in. Wet weather brought 2-3 inches of beneficial rainfall across the district. Field crop producers were preparing for the upcoming planting season by checking equipment and receiving seed. Winter pastures greatly improved due to the recent rainfall, providing much-needed forage for livestock. However, livestock producers were still supplementing diets with hay and protein, especially as some herds began calving. Wet conditions combined with the upcoming freeze may pose additional challenges for producers. Snow accumulation of 1-3 inches improved surface soil moisture but left fields too wet for farming operations to continue. Preplant fertilizer applications were underway before the snowfall. Freezing temperatures killed remaining green vegetation, and winter pastures were growing slowly despite some green-up from recent moisture. Pastures remained in poor condition, with widespread supplemental feeding of hay and protein. Livestock body condition scores were declining, though most cattle remained in fair to good condition. Heifer retention continued due to strong prices and high demand.

Wider weather episode

In mid-January, long-range guidance from the CPC began signaling a period of colder-than-normal temperatures across the central United States, with a slight risk of hazardous cold extending into South Texas around January 20. Although precipitation chances were noted, they were not as prominent as the cold signal. As the event drew closer, medium-range forecasts maintained high confidence in below-normal temperatures, particularly across the eastern U.S., with increasing indications of above-normal precipitation near the Gulf Coast. In South Texas, a moderate risk of dangerously cold temperatures emerged, though no significant signals for heavy snowfall were present. Forecast models showed a 500 mb pattern supportive of sustained cold, driven by upstream Arctic ridging, but the precise configuration remained critical for South Texas impacts. Near the surface, the formation and placement of a coastal trough introduced uncertainty, leading to run-to-run variability in temperature forecasts and limited confidence in precipitation type.

As the event moved into the mesoscale range, mixed precipitation threats began to become clearer, with model soundings suggesting a potential for freezing drizzle or sleet depending on the depth of the cold layer. A strong cold front passed through the area late January 18 into early January 19, delivering a sharp drop in temperatures (over 30 degrees) and establishing a dry Arctic air mass that lingered through Monday, January 20. On Monday, very light wintry precipitation occurred, aided by wet-bulb cooling, before warming and moistening of the atmospheric column later that day. By the 00Z sounding on January 21, a pronounced warm nose (5C) was present with strong warm advection, though moisture above 700 mb remained limited, hampering ice crystal formation. By 12Z, the warm nose weakened, and a deep subfreezing layer supported sleet, but poor saturation in the dendritic growth zone meant freezing drizzle remained the dominant precipitation type. Over the duration of the event, the office issued 20 long-fused hazard products between January 18 and 22, including Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, Cold Weather Advisories, Freeze Warnings, and various wind-related products.

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 1235699. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.