Marine Thunderstorm Wind · Lake Ontario

A warm front pressed north across the forecast area during the morning and midday hours. In its wake, dewpoints jumped into the mid 60s while increasing amounts of sun allowed for a rapid increase in instability over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. While the airmass destabilized, a low-level jet made its way across western New York. This supported ample deep layer shear. Initially, cells over the Southern Tier had trouble building due to the presence of a weak cap. Scattered storms over Allegany County finally broke that cap. Meanwhile, a strong lake breeze shielded the Niagara Frontier. A solid line of strong convection over southern Ontario approached the western edge of the lake breeze late in the afternoon. It was initially believed that the line would weaken as it tried to cross into the marine stabilized air. While the convection itself did weaken, a strong outflow pushed southeast across Niagara county. A warning was in place for the strong winds, and strong gusts did materialize in Niagara Falls. Additional cells formed in the still very unstable air mass over the Southern Tier while the southern Ontario convection broke down. As the evening wore on, the outflow from the southern Ontario convection merged with the eastern edge of the old lake breeze boundary, and a new line blew up east of Batavia and Warsaw. This line eventually supported warnings for the remainder of the area.