Lakeshore Flood — Northern Cayuga, New York

2019-11-21 · Northern Cayuga, New York

Wider weather episode

A pair of mid level shortwaves moved through the Great Lakes region. The resulting surface low moved from northern Michigan to southern Quebec from 11/20 through 11/21. The trailing cold front will sweep across the area during the night of 11/20. Model guidance was widely spread during the event with most of it favoring advisory level wind gusts, however even these wind gusts combined with the high lake levels generate waves large enough to continue the erosion of the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline. In contrast, the winds did not end up strong enough to generate a seiche substantial enough to generate flooding on the eastern shore of Lake Erie with a double peak of about 5.5 ft noted at the Buffalo buoy.

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 867039. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.