Lakeshore Flood — Northern Cayuga, New York

2019-11-27 to 2019-11-28 · Northern Cayuga, New York

Wider weather episode

Strong low pressure moved from the central Great Lakes to north of Lake Ontario. The trailing cold front entered western New York early in the afternoon of 11/27 and swept through later that evening. While the track of the surface low was very favorable, the event was atypical in that the surface low reached its maximum intensity across the western Great Lakes and filled quite rapidly by the time it passed to our north. Despite the weakening low, soundings were favorable for a warning criteria wind event across western New York, with 50-60 knots for a 3-5 hour period in the cold advection behind the cold front. Steepening lapse rates from cold advection allowed enough mixing to produce near warning criteria gusts across western New York. This caused a lesser long-lived seice on Lake Erie than the previous event. It peaked at 9.56 ft above low water datum with the level above Lake Erie's flood stage for about four hours. This again flooded Canalside in downtown Buffalo, flooded Route 5, and did additional damage to breakwaters in Dunkirk in Buffalo. Selected peak wind speeds included 69 mph in Fredonia, 66 mph in Hamburg, 59 at Buffalo Airport, 58 mph in Batavia, and 58 mph in Warsaw. Another smaller seice was noted on Lake Ontario, where the Cape Vincent reading jumped over a foot between 8 and 9 PM on 11/27 to 39.1 inches above low water datum. This combined with onshore waves continued beach erosion on the east end of Lake Ontario.

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 867051. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.