Lakeshore Flood — Northern Erie, New York

2021-03-26 · Northern Erie, New York

Event narrative

The Lake Erie level peaked at 11.4 feet at 12:06 PM EDT (11:06 AM EST).

Wider weather episode

A compact closed low passed just to the northwest of the area. Accompanying this system, a strong and well-mixed low-level jet advanced just to the east of Lake Erie. This was an unusual system since it originated in the southern branch of the jet stream and was already a closed mid-level low. This did not fit the pattern of what typically causes strong winds in our area, but it certainly did cause very strong winds with lots of damage and numerous measured gusts over 60 mph. There seemed to be a favorable environment for funneling along the Chautauqua Ridge and across the Niagara Frontier, as those were the locations with the strongest large scale wind gusts. Large scale wind gusts behind the front also caused a seiche on Lake Erie. The water level at Buffalo peaked at 11.4 feet above low water datum. Selected non-thunderstorm measured wind gusts included 69 mph in Fredonia, 60 mph at Buffalo-Niagara International Airport, 62 mph in Batavia, 59 mph at the Rochester Airport, and 58 mph in Warsaw. In addition, ahead of the cold front, early morning convection affect the Lake Erie shoreline as well as the Buffalo area, convection redeveloped in the afternoon over the North Country with discrete cells resulting in concentrated damage in Lewis County.

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 950958. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.