Heavy Rain in Bath County, Virginia

A personal weather station (Weather Underground: KVAMONTE15) recorded 3.20 inches or rainfall during a 2-hour period in the afternoon of June 13th. Per radar estimates, this appeared to be outside of the area of heaviest rainfall across Highland County. This location is also outside of the Back Creek basin, but close enough to be representative. At this location, this was a 25-year event per a NOAA Atlas 14 Point Precipitation Frequency estimate.

Slow-moving thunderstorms trained across southern Highland County, forming in an environment of CAPE exceeding 2,500 J/Kg and Precipitable Water of around 1.5 inches. The storms produced 2.5 to 4 inches of rainfall amounts over a 2 to 3-hour period, with rainfall rates at times reaching 5 to 6 inches per hour. Steep terrain in the Back Creek basin aided in creating efficient runoff to cause the stream gauge at Back Creek at Sunrise to rise to 10.01 feet, exceeding Moderate Flood Stage set at 10 feet. This is the highest this gauge has risen since 2008. FLASH estimated that rainfall just upstream from the stream gauge was over 3 times greater than 1-hour Flash Flood Guidance. CREST Unit Streamflow was estimating over 1,000 cfs per square mile, whiile CREST 1-hour Average Return Interval estimates put this rainfall at well over a 200-year event.