Lakeshore Flood — Southern Erie, New York

2021-12-06 · Southern Erie, New York

Wider weather episode

Low pressure strengthened to about 985 hPa as it tracked from Lake Superior to central Quebec. Ahead of low, a strong low-level jet of about 70 knots was associated with a warm front, while weaker post-frontal winds only spurred 45-50 knots at 850 hPa. This drove an odd downsloping wind event in the warm sector. While winds along the Chautauqua Ridge never topped 50 knots at the surface, they did north of the less impressive hills of the Finger Lakes. This resulted in reports of damage in Ontario County. Post cold frontal winds were also marginal, and most of the areas that gusted the strongest in the cold advection behind the cold front were downstream of the still warm Great Lakes. The isallobaric pressure rises and incoming high pressure resulted in a fairly weak seiche on Lake Erie, however it did rise to just over 8 feet in downtown Buffalo. Further along in the cold advection, lake effect snow developed downwind of Lake Erie. This resulted in localized heavy accumulations in Chautauqua County in the higher terrain, including 12.3 inches in Kennedy and 10 inches outside of Jamestown. Peak wind gusts included 59 mph at Rochester Airport, 58 mph at Watertown Airport, 61 mph at Batavia, and 71 mph at Brant.

Source: NOAA Storm Events Database, event_id 988225. Narrative written by the NWS forecast office that issued the report.