Hail in Hardeman County, Texas

MPing report.

A strong synoptic wave approached the region during the evening into overnight hours on the 15th. An initial round of convection (during the afternoon of the 15th) preceded the more prominent mid/upper trough. This activity was driven in part by warm-air advection processes and synoptic support from a phasing branch on the subtropical jet. Sufficient instability and organizing wind shear promoted organized (supercell) thunderstorms with a threat of large hail. Through the evening, despite continued strong wind shear and approaching (increasing) synoptic ascent, a prominent layer of warm air aloft ('cap') prevented robust storm development through sunset. Scattered convection did ultimately develop by the very late evening on the 15th. However, outside of a severe-caliber wind gust along the Oklahoma/Kansas border area, severe weather outcomes were limited until convection moved north of the WFO Norman area (into south-central Kansas).