Marine Thunderstorm Wind · Gulf of Mexico

Mesonet station rcpt2.

Thunderstorm chances increased across South Texas on February 14th as a large-scale upper-level trough moved east from the western United States and pushed an associated surface low and cold front toward the region. Ahead of the front, a strengthening low-level jet transported Gulf moisture northward, gradually increasing atmospheric moisture and supporting scattered showers overnight into the morning hours. Early activity remained relatively light and limited in coverage, primarily affecting the Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads, and northern Brush Country as modest lift interacted with increasing low-level moisture.

By the afternoon and evening, the approaching cold front provided stronger lift across the region while upper-level jet support enhanced large-scale ascent. Atmospheric moisture values rose to well above seasonal normals, and modest instability developed with CAPE values near 1000 J/kg. These ingredients allowed showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the advancing boundary, with the greatest coverage focused across northern portions of the area where mid-level capping was weakest. Storms were expected to organize into a broken line as they moved from northwest to southeast through the afternoon and evening.

Although the overall severe weather risk remained limited, portions of the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains, and Victoria Crossroads were placed under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. South Texas largely remained on the southwestern edge of the more favorable severe environment centered farther north and east across Southeast Texas. However, a few storms briefly intensified as the front moved through, producing isolated damaging marine wind gusts.