Thunderstorm Wind in Allegany County, New York

Downed tree causing the road to be closed on NY 19 near Canal Street in the Town of Belfast.

On June 18, 2026, an approaching upper-level shortwave trough and associated cold front crossed the NWS Buffalo region, interacting with a developing warm sector to trigger scattered showers and severe thunderstorms. According to NWS Buffalo Area Forecast Discussions, early-morning clouds and showers along a warm front initially limited heating, but afternoon boundary-layer destabilization yielded 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE'particularly across the Western Southern Tier. The Storm Prediction Center outlined a Marginal Risk for severe weather, noting that 0'6 km bulk shear values near 45 knots and steep low-level lapse rates would support multi-cell storm structures capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts. Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center noted a subdued flash flood threat; although warm-cloud depth and precipitable water values over 1.25 inches fueled heavy downpours, fast storm motion kept rainfall progressive enough to prevent widespread flooding. Following the cold frontal passage, convective activity waned overnight as cooler air over Lake Erie initiated early-season lake effect rain bands and a lingering potential for waterspouts.